Focus on the core issues of the charging pile industry and gain insights into the development trends of 2024.

What is a suitable vehicle-to-charging pile ratio?

The vehicle-to-charging pile ratio refers to the ratio of new energy vehicles to charging piles. It is generally considered appropriate for the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio to be between 2.5:1 and 3:1.

When the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio is within this range, it can better meet the charging needs of new energy vehicle users. On one hand, it prevents a severe shortage of charging piles that would lead to difficulties for vehicle owners in charging and excessively long waiting times; on the other hand, it also avoids resource waste caused by over-construction of charging piles.

However, the appropriate vehicle-to-charging pile ratio may vary due to factors such as region, the development speed of new energy vehicles, and users' charging habits. For example, in some large cities, due to a high number of new energy vehicles and their frequent use, a lower vehicle-to-charging pile ratio may be needed to ensure charging demand. In contrast, in some medium and small cities or areas where charging facilities are relatively easy to build, the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio can be relaxed.

With the continuous advancement of new energy vehicle technology and the ongoing expansion of the market, the requirements for the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio may also change. In the future, with the development of fast charging technology, the improvement of intelligent charging networks, and the enhancement of new energy vehicle battery capacity and range, there may be new impacts on the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio.

What is the future trend of the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio?

The future trend of the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio will be influenced by various factors, including the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market, advancements in charging technology, policy support, and regional differences.

According to a recent report released by TrendForce, it is estimated that by 2026, the number of public charging piles worldwide will exceed 16 million, approximately three times that of 2023; the number of new energy vehicles (PHEV, BEV actual ownership) will reach 96 million, with a vehicle-to-charging pile ratio of about 6:1, significantly lower than 10:1 in 2021.

The report also pointed out that China is a key driver of the global increase in the number of public charging piles, estimating that by 2030, China will raise the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio to 2:1. By 2026, the vehicle-to-charging pile ratios in Europe and China are expected to be 9:1 and 4:1, respectively; the current number of charging piles in the United States is over 200,000, with a goal of building 500,000 charging piles by 2026, at which time the predicted number of new energy vehicles in the U.S. will reach 15 million, with a vehicle-to-charging pile ratio still as high as 32:1.

Additionally, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, stated that according to the calculation of 1 public charging pile = 3 private charging piles, the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio for pure electric vehicles in China's incremental market in 2024 has already reached 1:1, leading the levels of other countries in the world by several times.

From the planning of some domestic regions, Suzhou has proposed that by 2027, the vehicle-to-charging pile ratio for new energy vehicles will reach 1.9:1.

Growth of new energy vehicles

By the end of 2023, the number of new energy vehicles in the country will reach 20.41 million, accounting for 6.07% of the total number of vehicles; the market share of new energy vehicles is expected to approach 40% in 2024, nearly 50% in 2025, and exceed 50% in 2026, establishing a dominant position in the market. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 100 million, with annual sales reaching 20 million and a market share exceeding 70%.

The demand for charging piles is enormous.

If we calculate based on an ownership of 100 million vehicles and a vehicle-to-charging pile ratio of 2.5:1, then by 2030, we will need at least about 40 million charging piles. As of the end of July 2024, the number of charging piles nationwide reached 10.604 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%. Among them, there are 3.209 million public charging piles and 7.394 million private charging piles. In the foreseeable years, at least 30 million new charging piles will be needed, indicating a huge market potential.